Final 2018 Oscar Predictions – The Voting Closed, So Who Do You Got?

With voting officially concluded for the 91st Academy Awards (AKA the 91st Oscars), it’s time to wonder who will lead on nomination morning. Frankly, it’s a bit discouraging to see some of the guilds weigh in on your favorite movies of the year. Yet at the same time, it gives us a bit of insight into the madness that is just around the corner. Still, the Academy is fickle,  and they may throw a curve ball or two into the events that are about to unfold. No one saw the love fest coming for Phantom Thread or Darkest Hour last year? Ultimately, it is unlikely that I’ll hit much higher than 70% of the nominations for next week. That said, it’s fun to try. Let’s check out who we think will be Oscar nominees for the films from 2018.

91st Oscars Nomination Predictions

All rankings are in order of likelihood of the nomination, not in how likely they are to win their category. At least some alternatives will be offered in every category. All categories with the exceptions of Best Picture and Best Makeup & Hairstyling get 5 nominees. Picture can have up to 10 nominees (will be predicting 9) and Makeup gets only 3. Some categories have been cut down to below 10 potential nominees with Academy released shortlists.

Best Picture

I am predicting 9 nominees.

Locks/Very Strong

1. Star Is Born 

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. Roma

4. Bohemian Rhapsody 

5. Black Panther 

6. Green Book

7. The Favourite 

On the Bubble

8. First Man

9. If Beale Street Could Talk 

In the Hunt

10. Cold War 

11. Vice

12. Mary Poppins Returns

13. Crazy Rich Asians

14. A Quiet Place

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

Best Director

Locks

1. Alfonso Cuarón – Roma

2. Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

3. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

On the Bubble

4. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

5. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk

6. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther

7. Adam McKay – Vice

8. Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

9. Peter Farrelly – Green Book

In the Hunt 

10. Damien Chazelle – First Man

Actor in a Leading Role

Locks

1. Christian Bale – Vice

2. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

On the Bubble

4. John David Washington – BlacKkKlansman

5. Ethan Hawke – First Reformed

6. Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

In the Hunt

7. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

8. Ryan Gosling – First Man

9. Robert Redford – The Old Man & The Gun

10. John C. Reilly – Stan & Ollie

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Locks

1. Olivia Colman – The Favourite

2. Glenn Close – The Wife

3. Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

On the Bubble

4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

5. Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

6. Emily Blunt – Mary Poppins Returns

7. Viola Davis – Widows

In the Hunt

8. Toni Collette – Hereditary

9. Joanna Kulig – Cold War

10. Saorise Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Locks

1. Mahershala Ali – Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

On the Bubble

4. Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

5. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther

6. Timothée Chalamet – Beautiful Boy

In the Hunt

7. Sam Rockwell – Vice

8. Nicholas Hoult – The Favourite

9. Russell Hornsby – The Hate U Give

10. Brian Tyree Henry – If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Locks

1. Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

2. Emma Stone – The Favourite

3. Amy Adams – Vice

4. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

On the Bubble

5. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots

6. Claire Foy – First Man

7. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

In the Hunt

8. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie – Leave No Trace

9. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians

10. Elizabeth Debicki – Widows

Original Screenplay

Lock

1. The Favourite – Written by Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara

2. Roma – Written by Alfonso Cuarón

On the Bubble

3. Vice – Written by Adam McKay

4. Eighth Grade – Written by Bo Burnham

5. Cold War – Written by Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki, & Piotr Borkowski

6. Green Book  – Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly

7. A Quiet Place  – Written by Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, John Krasinski, Bryan Woods, Scott Beck

In the Hunt

8. First Reformed – Written by Paul Schrader

9. Private Life – Written by Tamara Jenkins

10. Bohemian Rhapsody – Written by Andrew McCarten & Peter Morgan

Best Adapted Screenplay

Locks

1.  If Beale Street Could Talk – Written by Barry Jenkins

2. Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Written by Nicole Holofcener

3. BlacKkKlansman – Written by Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, & Kevin Willmott

On the Bubble

4. Black Panther – Written by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole

5. The Death of Stalin – Written by Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury & David Schneider 

6. A Star Is Born – Written by Will Fetters, Bradley Cooper & Eric Roth

7. Leave No Trace  – Written by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

In the Hunt

8. Crazy Rich Asians – Written by Peter Chiarelli & Adele Lim

9. First Man – Written by Josh Singer

10. The Hate U Give – Written by Audrey Wells

Animated Feature

Locks

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

2. Incredibles 2

3. Isle of Dogs

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet

On the Bubble

5. Mirai

6. Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch

7. Early Man

In the Hunt

8. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

9. Tito & the Birds

10. Ruben Brandt, Collector 

Best Documentary

Locks

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 

2. Free Solo

3. Three Identical Strangers

On the Bubble

4. Minding the Gap

5. Shirkers

6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

7. RBG

In the Hunt

8. Dark Money

9. The Silence of Others

10. On Her Shoulders

Foreign Language Feature

Locks

1. Roma – Directed by Alfonso Cuarón 

2. Cold War – Directed by Pawel Pawlikowski

3. Shoplifters – Directed by Hirokazu Kore-eda

On the Bubble

4. The Guilty – Directed Gustav Möller

5. Burning – Directed Lee Chang-dong

6. Capernaum – Directed by Nadine Labaki 

In the Hunt

7. Never Look Away Directed by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck

8. Birds of Passage – Directed by Cristina Gallego & Ciro Guerra

9. Ayka – Directed by Sergei Dvortsevoy

Best Original Song

Locks 

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther

3. “Revelation” from Boy Erased

On the Bubble

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’

6. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

7. “I’ll Fight” from RBG

In the Hunt

8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

10. “Susperium” from Suspiria

Best Original Score

Locks

1. Mary Poppins Returns – Composer Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman

2. Isle of Dogs – Composer Alexandre Desplat

On the Bubble

3. If Beale Street Could Talk – Composer Nicholas Britell

4. First Man – Composer Justin Hurwitz

5. Black Panther – Composer Ludwig Göransson

6. BlacKkKlansman – Composer Terence Blanchard

7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Composer Carter Burwell

8. A Quiet Place – Composer Marco Beltrami 

In the Hunt

9. Ready Player One – Composer Alan Silvestri

10. Annihilation – Composer Geoff Barrow & Ben Salisbury

Best Production Design

Locks

1. The Favourite

2. Black Panther

3. Mary Poppins Returns

On the Bubble

4. First Man

5. Roma

6. Crazy Rich Asians

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

In the Hunt

8. Mary Queen of Scots

9. BlacKkKlansman

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Cinematography

Locks

1. Roma – DP Alfonso Cuarón 

2. The Favourite – DP Robbie Ryan

3. Cold War – DP Łukasz Żal

4. A Star Is Born – DP Matthew Libatique

On the Bubble

5. First Man – DP Linus Sandgren

6. If Beale Street Could Talk  DP James Laxton

7. Black Panther – DP Rachel Morrison

In the Hunt

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – DP Bruno Delbonnel

9. Widows  – DP Sean Bobbitt 

10. The Rider – DP Joshua James Richards

Visual Effects

Locks

1. Avengers: Infinity War

2. Ready Player One

3. First Man

On the Bubble

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

5. Black Panther

6. Christopher Robin

In the Hunt

7. Mary Poppins Returns

8. Welcome to Marwen

9. Ant-Man & The Wasp

10. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Costume Design

Locks

1. Black Panther – Costumes by Ruth E. Carter

2. The Favourite – Costumes by Sandy Powell

3. Mary Poppins Returns – Costumes by Sandy Powell

4. Mary Queen of Scots  – Costumes by Alexandra Byrne

On the Bubble

5. Crazy Rich Asians – Costumes by Mary Vogt

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Costumes by Mary Zophres

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald – Costumes by Colleen Atwood

8. BlacKkKlansman – Costumes by Marci Rodgers

In the Hunt

9. Bohemian Rhapsody – Costumes by Julian Day

10. If Beale Street Could Talk – Costumes by Caroline Eselin

Film Editing

Locks

1. First Man – Editing by Tom Cross

2. Roma – Editing by Alfonso Cuarón & Adam Gough

3. A Star Is Born – Editing by Jay Cassidy

On the Bubble

4. BlacKkKlansman – Editing by Barry Alexander Brown

5. The Favourite – Editing by Sam Sneade

6. Black Panther – Editing by Michael Shawver & Debbie Berman

7. Vice – Editing by Hank Corwin

8. Bohemian Rhapsody – Editing John Ottoman

In the Hunt

9. A Quiet Place – Editing by Christopher Tellefsen

10. If Beale Street Could Talk by Joi McMillon & Nat Sanders

Makeup & Hairstyling

Locks

1. Border – Makeup & Hairstyling by Goran Lundstrom & Pamela Goldammer

On the Bubble

2. Black Panther – Makeup & Hairstyling by Joel Harlow, Camille Friend, Ken Diaz

3. Suspiria – Makeup & Hairstyling by Mark Coulier, Fernanda Perez, Manola Garcia

4. Vice – Makeup & Hairstyling by Kate Biscoe, Patricia DeHaney, Greg Cannom & Chris Gallaher

5. Bohemian Rhapsody – Makeup & Hairstyling by Jan Sewell, Charlie Hounslow-Smith & Rebecca Cole

In the Hunt

6. Stan & Ollie – Makeup & Hairstyling by Jeremy Woodhead & Mark Coulier

7. Mary Queen of Scots – Makeup & Hairstyling by Jenny Shircone

Sound Mixing

A quick explanation of sound mixing. The mixer takes the sounds that are put into a film, and sets the sound levels for each one of them. It is their job to make sure you understand the directions the sound comes from in a theatre, as well as balancing out dialogue, ambient noises of the environment, and the score into the film. Let’s dive in.

Locks

1. First Man – Mixed by Mary Ellis, Jon Taylor, Frank Montaño & Ai-Ling Lee

2. A Star Is Born – Mixed by Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupanicic & Jason Ruder 

3. Bohemian Rhapsody – Mixed by Steve Boeddecker, Brandon Proctor & Peter Devlin

On the Bubble

4. Roma – Mixed by Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan & José Antonio García

5. A Quiet Place – Mixed by Michael Barosky & Brandon Proctor

6. Black Panther – Mixed by John Casali, Paul Massey & Tim Cavagin

7. Mary Poppins Returns – Mixed by Mike Prestwood Smith, Michael Keller & Simon Hayes

In the Hunt

8. The Favourite – Mixed by Johnnie Burn

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Mixed by Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood & Gilbert Lake

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mixed by Peter F. Kurland, Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey & Greg Orloff 

Sound Editing

Again, a quick definition. This has to do with the creation of the sound. Often, they have to make the sound effects from scratch or combine other noises to create the sound palette. The title of this prize would make more sense if it gets rebranded as “sound design” because these individuals literally put the sound (or lack thereof) into the film. Music falls under the mixer, so musicals often struggle here.

Locks

1.  First Man – Edited by Ai-Ling Lee & Mildred Iatrou Morgan

2. A Quiet Place – Edited by Ethan Van Der Ryn & Erik Aadahl

3. Black Panther – Edited by Benjamin A. Burtt & Steve Boeddeker

On the Bubble

4. Roma – Edited by Sergio Díaz & Skip Lievsay

5. Ready Player One – Edited by Gary Rydstrom & Richard Hyms

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout – Edited by James H. Mather

7. Avengers: Infinity War – Edited by Shannon Mills & Daniel Laurie

In the Hunt

8. The Favourite – Edited by Johnnie Burn

9. A Star Is Born – Edited by Alan Robert Murray

10. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse – Edited by Geoffrey G. Rubay, Curt Schulkey & John Pospisil

Animated Short

Locked

1. Bao 

2. Age of Sail

On the Bubble

3. One Small Step

4. Animal Behaviour

5. Weekends

6. Bird Karma

In the Hunt

7. Late Afternoon

8. Pepe Le Morse

9. Bilby

10. Lost & Found

Best Documentary Short

Locked

1.  Zion

2. Women of the Gulag

On the Bubble

3. 63 Boycott 

4. End Game

5. A Night at the Garden

6. Los Comandos

In the Hunt

7. Lifeboat

8. My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes

9. Black Sheep

10.  Period. End of Sentence

Best Live-Action Short

On the Bubble

1. Caroline 

2. Detainment

3.  Mother

4.  May Day

5.  Wale

In the Hunt

6. Skin 

7. Fauve

8. Icare

9. Marguerite

10. Chuchotage

Predicted Nominations Count

10- Black Panther, The Favourite, Roma

9 – A Star Is Born

8 – First Man

6 – BlacKkKlansman

5 – If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns

3 – Bohemian Rhapsody, Cold War, Could You Ever Forgive Me?, Vice

2 – A Quiet Place, Green Book, Isle of Dogs, Mary Queen of Scots, Ready Player One

1 – Avengers: Infinity War, Border, Boy Erased, Burning, Crazy Rich Asians, Death of Stalin, Dumplin’, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, Free Solo, Guilty, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shirkers, Shoplifters, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Suspiria, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

 

 

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